OFW PAG IBIG HOUSING LOAN DUBAI

OFW ka bang matagal ng nagttarabaho ngunit wala pa ring bahay?

 Panahon na para pag isipan mu ang pagkuha 

upang magkaroon naman ng matibay na katibayan ang pag aabroad natin.

Maari tayong mag loan sa bangko o di naman kaya ay mag avail ng PAG IBIG.

Sakali man po na kailangan po ninyo ng mga gabay ( amortization , reservation fees , financing issues , etc.) sa pagkuha ng bahay na inyong pangarap ay narito po akong inyong lingkod upang kayo ay matulungan. Maraming Salamat po. Archie Acedo - 050 686 0415 International Property Specialist  Accredited SMDC Residences & Condominium Agent SM Residences

Alamin kung bakit ka nandito

Sabi ni Rizal , " walang kwenta ang buhay na walang layunin. Ito ay parang isang batong pakalat -kalat at hindi man lamang naging parte ng isang gusali.. "


Payag ka ba ng ganun kabayan? 

Isang makatotohanang pagsusuri sa sarili ang ating gawin para magkaroon ng kabuluhan ang lahat ng ating ginagawa.

Salamat po.


www.incmedia.org

Have you ever been in a rock bottom situation?

Rock bottom became the solid foundation on which I rebuilt my life -  J.K Rowling

Google defines the word rock bottom as the lowest possible level and one point in our lives we experience this kind of feeling where we feel  we are stucked.

No matter how we tried to get up or start anew we always end up on the same situation. It can also be likened to a quick sand that the more we struggles the more we are pull down to the depths of endless dilemmas..

How many times we have told to ourselves we are going to change yet found ourselves repeating the same mistake over and again?

Are you emotionally , spiritually or financially broke?

Couldn't find a job for many months?  Literally ran out of money?

How many times we have told ourselves we will lose weight but end up gaining weight more than before?

How many times have we said to God that we will be faithful to Him but end up sinning again?

What does it take to truly change?

Is a strong conviction and a strong why enough?

Yes our mind says it is not the right thing but sometimes at the face of temptation we falter

We unconsciously close our eyes to the truth and give in to our earthly desires

Yes we are only human but that should not be an excuse to rationalize our wrong doings

The end does not justify the means

So shall we accept and surrender hopelessness?

Absolutely not  as long as there is a single strand of hope within us..

As long as our heart is beating , we should not give up the fight..

For once surrender yourself completely to God,

Raise your hands to heaven and beg for help..

That you cannot do this alone..recognize that  truth..

Pray hard ..pray deeply..and have that faith that God is there to listen to your supplications..

Who knows being at the rock bottom maybe the greatest turning point in your life? 


If you are at a low point in your life, I encourage you to give some thought to why this could be a defining moment that completely changes the trajectory of your life. If you’re asking yourself “why am I in this situation, this sucks?”, then you are setting yourself up for failure. 


You’re going to need to shift your focus and ask yourself the question “How can I use this opportunity to take my life to the next level?”. If you do that you’ll find that dramatic positive change is inevitable.


The beauty of hitting rock bottom is that you truly have nothing to lose...

Minsan May Isang Puta(Once there was a Slut...)

Minsan May Isang Puta, by Mike Borromeo

Tingin ng mga bobong kapitbahay ko puta daw ako. Nagpapagamit, binabayaran. Sabi nila ako daw ang pinakamaganda at pinakasikat sa aming lugar noon. Ang bango-bango ko daw, sariwa at makinis. Di ko nga alam kung sumpa ito, dahil dito naletse ang kinabukasan ko.

Tara makinig ka muna sa kwento ko, yosi muna tayo.

Alam mo, maraming lumapit sa akin, nagkagusto, naakit. Ang hirap pag lahat sa iyo virgin eh. Tinanggap ko naman silang tao, bakit kaya nila ako ginago? Masakit alalahanin, iniisip ko na lang na kase di sila taga rito, siguro talagang ganoon. Tatlong malilibog na foreigners ang namyesta sa katawan ko, na-rape daw ako.

Sa tatlong beses akong nagahasa, ang pinakahuli ang di ko makakalimutan. Parang maski di ko ginusto ang mga nangyari, hinahanap-hanap ko siya. Tinulungan nya kasi akong makalimutan yung mga sadistang Hapon at Coño. Kase, ibang-iba ang hagod niya. Umiikot ang mundo ko sa tuwing ginagamit niya ako. Ibang klase siya mag-sorry, lalo pa at kinupkop niya ako at ang mga naging anak ko.

Parating ang dami naming regalo - may chocolates, yosi, ano ka! May datung pa! Nakakabaliw siya, alam kong ginagamit nya lang ako pero pagamit naman ako nang pagamit. Sa kanya namin natutunan mag-inggles, di lang magsulat ha! Magbasa pa! Hanggang ngayon, sa tuwing mabigat ang problema ko, siya ang tinatakbuhan ko. 'Yun nga lang, lahat ng bagay may kapalit. Nung kinasama ko siya, guminhawa buhay namin. Sosyal na sosyal kami.

Ewan ko nga ba, akala ko napapamahal na ako sa kanya. Akala ko tuloy-tuloy na kaligayahan namin, yun pala unti-unti niya akong pinapatay. P*** ng I**! Sa dami ng lason na sinaksak niya sa katawan ko, muntik na akong malaspag. Ang daming nagsabi na ang tanga tanga ko. Patalsikin ko na daw. Sa tulong ng mga anak ko, napalayas ko ang animal pero ang hirap magsimula. Masyado na kaming nasanay sa sarap ng buhay na naranasan namin sa kanya. Lubog na lubog pa kami sa utang, kulang ata pati kaluluwa namin para ibayad sa mga inutang namin.

Sinikap naming lahat maging maganda ang buhay namin. Ayun, mga nasa Japan, Hong Kong, Saudi ang mga anak ko. Yung iba nag-US, Europe. 'Yung iba ayaw umalis sa akin. Halos lahat, wala naman silbi, masaya daw sa piling ko, maski amoy usok ako.

Sa dami ng mga anak ko na nagsisikap na tulungan ang kalagayan namin, siya din ang dami ng mga anak ko na namamantala sa kabuhayan at kayaman na itinatabi ko para sa punyetang kinabukasan naming lahat. Dumating ang panahon na di na kami halos makaahon sa hirap ng buhay. Napakahirap dahil nasanay na kami sa ginhawa at sarap.

Ang di ko inaakala ay mismong mga anak ko, ang tuluyang sisira sa akin. Napakasakit tanggapin na malinlang. Akala ko ay makakakita ako ng magiging kasama sa buhay sa mga ahas na ipinakilala ng mga anak ko Hindi pala. Ang tanga ko talaga. Binugaw ako ng sarili kong mga anak kapalit ng kwarta at pansamantalang ginhawa na nais nilang matamasa.

Wala na akong nagawa dahil sa sobrang pagmamahal ko sa aking mga anak. Wala akong ibang yaman kundi ganda ko. Pinagamit ko na lang ng pinagamit ang sarili ko, basta maginhawa lang ang mga anak ko.

Usap-usapan ako ng mga kapitbahay ko. May nanghihinayang, namumuhi at naaawa. Puta na kase ang isang magandang tulad ko.

Alam mo, gusto ko na sanang tumigil sa pagpuputa kaso ang laki talaga ng letseng utang ko eh. Palaki pa ng palaki. Kulang na kulang. Paano na lang ang mga anak ko naiwan sa aking punyetang puder? Baka di na ako balikan o bisitahin ng mga nag-abroad kong mga anak. Hindi na importante kung laspagin man ang ganda ko, madama ko lang ang pagmamahal ng mga anak ko. Malaman nila na gagawin ko ang lahat para sa kanila.

Sa tuwing titingin ako sa salamin, alam ko maganda pa rin ako. Meron pa din ang bilib sa akin. Napapag usapan pa din. Sa tuwing nakikita ko ang mukha ko sa salamin, nakikita ko ang mga anak ko. Tutulo na lang ang mga luha ko ng di ko namamalayan. Ang gagaling nga ng mga anak ko, namamayagpag kahit saan sila pumunta. Mahusay sa kahit anong gawin. Tama man o mali. Proud ako sa kanila. Kaso sila, kabaligtaran ang nararamdaman para sa akin.

Sa dami ng mga anak ko, iilan lang ang may malasakit sa akin. May malasakit man, nahihilaw. Ni di nga ako kinikilalang ina. Halos lahat sila galit sa isa't isa. Walang gusto magtulungan, naghihilahan pa. Ang dami ko ng pasakit na tiniis pero walang sasakit pa nung sarili kong mga anak ang nagbugaw sa akin. Kinapital ang laspag na ganda ko. Masyado silang nasanay sa sarap ng buhay. Minsan sa pagtingin ko sa salamin, ni hindi ko na nga kilala sarili ko.

Dadating na naman ang pasko, sana maalala naman ako ng mga anak ko. Isang buwan pa, magbabagong taon na. Natatakot ako sa taong darating. Ngayon pa lang usap usapan na ang susunod na pagbubugaw ng ilan sa mga anak ko. Sana may magtanggol naman sa akin, ipaglaban naman nila ako. Gusto kong isigaw: "INA NINYO AKO! MAHALIN NYO NAMAN AKO!"

Sige, dumadrama na ako. Masisira na ang make up ko nito eh. Salamat ha, pinakinggan mo ako.

Ay sorry, di ko nasabi pangalan ko.

Pilipinas nga pala.

IBASURA ANG PHILHEALTH INCREASE sa OFWs!

Philippine Health Insurance Corp. to increase the premium contribution of overseas 
Filipino workers by as much as 167 %




Ang mga opisyal ng PhilHealth ay dapat  magpresenta ang detalyadong financial statements ng ahensiya, kabilang ang kinikita at gastusin nito para makita kung kinakailangan ang hinihingi nilang pagtaas sa singil sa kontribusyon.



Kailangan po nating malaman saan nila dinadala ang mga pondo gayung halos
hindi naman natin naa -avail ang kanilang serbisyo.




"Ang dagdag na bayarin ay dagdag na pasanin sa mga kababayan natin na malaki na ang 
isinakripisyo para sa kanilang pamilya at para sa bansa. 


Hindi naman po lahat ng OFW ay malaki ang kinikita.


For OFW members, the increase has been deferred from July 1, 2012 to January 2013.


Kaya hindi pa po tapos ang ating pakikipagbaka , gawin po nating aware ang lahat patungkol dito lalo na po tayong mga OFWs.


Sharing is Caring ^__^


Maraming Salamat po.

Best MLM /Network Marketing Business in UAE

Network marketing gives people the opportunity, with very low risk and very low financial commitment, to build their own income-generating asset and acquire great wealth.” 

– Robert T. Kiyosaki, Entrepreneur and Author

Nowadays , MLM has dominated the traditional industry of just selling. Well it is true that some people are not yet fully open to this idea.

Others which are close minded see it as a pyramid scheme.

According to Harvard Study: In a typical pyramid scheme, a member pays to join. The only way for the member to ever recover any money is to convince other people to join up and to part with their money as well. 

Ang pondo o ang pinagkukuhanan ng revenue ng kanilang kompanya ay sa pamamagitan ng pag rerecruit lamang!!!

Nevertheless the sprouting of various MLM companies especially here in UAE have been felt mostly by OFWs.

This is not a complete list but are ones which have been around for some time. What we do advise from the below list is to DO OUR HOMEWORK.

Hanapan po natin ng butas. Hindi po biro ang anumang halaga na inilalabas natin na pang invest dahil para po ito sa ating pamilya.

Know more about the company.Ilang taon na po ba sila sa business? Masyado po bang maaga? o matagal na at saturated na ang market?  Baka naman po fly by night? Walang nakatatag na opisina Or nag eexist lang sa internet.

 Sa isang pagsusuri ang stability at development ng isang kompanya ay makikita kapag ito ay lagpas na ng 5 taon at hindi naman sobrang tagal na halos 50 taon na saturated na market at di na nag aappeal sa consumers.  Dapat din nating i consider ang expansion ng kompanya o ng business na ating napupusuan.

Search for scam and other legal issues associated with the company.

Be brutally honest to accept if we realized that the MLM we currently belong to survives only by recruiting

and therefore we should take action for a change to a true and legitimate multilevel marketing,

Warning signs

• You are offered a chance to join a group, scheme, program or team where you need to recruit new members to make money.
• The scheme involves offers of goods or services  that serve only to promote the scheme (such as information sheets).
• There are no goods or services being offered for sale by the scheme or if there is difficult to sell or of little value. Making money out of recruitment is still their main aim!  

   So here are the list (but in random order)

• 1.     Royale Business Club
• 2.     AIM
• 3.     Forever
• 4.     VMobile
• 5.     MVT
• 6.     Anion Napkin
• 7.     DXN
• 8.     JustBeenPaid
• 9.     MSE
• 10.   Edmark

“If you are a person with big dreams and would love to support others in achieving their big dreams, then the network marketing business is definitely a business for you. You can start your business part-time at first and then as your business grows, you can help other people start their part-time business. This is a value worth having – a business and people who help others make their dreams come true.” -Robert Kiyosaki

Most of all , it is wise to ask God to help you decide the company or the business you are considering that He might show you the right people that will help you achieve your aspirations and dreams for your family.

Maraming Salamat po!

Archie C. Acedo , Associate Financial Planner

OFW /Investment Advocate

050 686 0415

Every saint has a past and every sinner has a future...


One of my deepest prayers last night..is solemn vow--a pledge of love --that rest of my life be spent in serving and praising God.


Yes we have sinned a lot in our yesteryears but through all those times .Jesus has not given up on us. He still cares for us...


We are renewed. We are cleanse! So what now?


Be a full time Christian 24/7. We should see to it that all our words and actions are in accordance to our profound faith.


Because every time we sin , just imagine that we are again crucifying the Lord Jesus Christ!


We should not put into shame the name by which we are called and grab every opportunity to do good all the time..all the way!


Let us all be busy not only in our jobs but most of all for our spiritual investment in inheriting the Kingdom  of God :)


http://incmedia.org/incms/

Kabayan , Do you have a Storehouse?

 

In Deuteronomy 28:8, it says, The Lord will command the blessing upon you in your storehouse…

Remember what happened to Joseph in Egypt? God asked him to build a storehouse during the 7 years of plenty—so that Egypt would have food for the next 7 years of famine.

God blessed that storehouse and Egypt prospered.

Question: How can God bless your storehouse if you don’t have one?

Today, I have a storehouse. My storehouse is my long-term investments in the Stock Market & Royale Business Club.

It’s now your turn.

Build your storehouse so that God has something to bless!

Call 050 686 0415 for your inquiries and FREE Business Presentation!Email : archz_acedo@yahoo.com

Godbless po!

Archie Acedo , Financial Planner/Advocate

Breadwinner ka..kasalanan bang hindi magpadala?

alam mo iho, sinasabi ko sa mga anak ko na huwag sila mag-abot sakin ng pera o sustento. wala silang dapat isipin na utang na loob nila sa akin kasi responsibilidad ko bilang magulang nila na palakihiin sila at bigyan ng magandang buhay. bigyan lang nila ako ng apo, masaya na ako."


Mayroon din naman po kasing nagsasabi ng ganito: "Änak , huwag ka munang mag aaasawa ha,patapusin mu na tin sila , tulungan muna natin yung mga kapatid mu sila moymoy , etc. 

sa kultura nating mga Pilipino , karamihan itinuturing na pananagutan na magpadala tayo .Tama po ito at mabuti ang tumulong kaysa ipanggastos lang s akung anu-ano.Masarap ang tumutulong.

Ngunit minsan nga ay namimihasa na ang ilan at ikaw na lamang talaga ang inaasahan na pati ang budget sa bahay pambili ng grocery etc ay kasama na sa ipinapadala mu..kung ikaw ay isang binata o dalaga, paano ka pa makakapag asawa?

Ang tutuo merong ilan pag sumablay ka ng buwan na magpadala ay lumalabas na ikaw pa ang masama?


Siguro mas maganda kung surpresahin na lang natin sila ng pagpapadala kung uubra naman mas magugulat pa sila meron na silang bagong tv o appliances o cash na hindi nila inaasahan.


Kanya kanya po talagang prinsipyo yan..

Meron din namang gustong gusto tumulong pero wala sa posisyong tumulong?

Sa papapano sa kanyang sarili pala ay kulang na.kung ganun ay dapat humanap tayo ng paraan para magkaroon ng extra income.

Dapat nating ipakilala sa Panginoong Diyos ang ating mga pangangailangan. Baka naman kasi kaya ka hindi umaasenso kahit na ilang taon ka na sa abroad ay dahil sa namumuhay sa paggawa ng kasalanan.

Kailangan nating siyasatin ang ating sarili ,anak ka ng Diyos ngunit bakit tila napakailap sa yo ng kapalaran? at tila ba nagiipon ka sa butas na lalagyan?

May mga ibat'ibang paraaang ipapakita sa yo kung paano mo matatanggap ang kanyang masaganang biyaya..

Kausapin po natin ang Diyos...

Godbless po! ^___^
http://incmedia.org/incms/

If you don't like where you are,change it! You are not a Tree!

Life is indeed a sum of our choices. 

We are what we are today because of the choices we made yesterday.

Yes we might have made stupid , irrational , completely foolish choices in the past and may still be haunting us  in the present. We must accept and take responsibility of our lives.

So are you still single today? Why not go out and go dating?

Are you still broken-hearted? Why not let go of the past and move on?

Are you bored with your job? Why not start looking for the things you can appreciate?

So are  you still struggling financially? Why not find avenues for EXTRA INCOME!

So are you spiritually empty? Fill your heart with the love of God. 

Search for the truth and it shall set you free!

The questions are endless..eventually we will realize it is not destiny but it is our choices that will shape our lives. We should  have faith that when we surrender ourselves to God , He will guide us in making right choices in life.

"For this commandment which I command you today is not too mysterious for you, nor is it far off ... See I have set before you today life and good, death and evil, in that I command you today to love the LORD your God, to walk in His ways, and to keep His commandments.. .that  I have set before you life and death, blessing and cursing; therefore choose life,

Deuteronomy 30:11,15,16

Decisions become easier when your will to please God outweighs your will to please the world :)

Yes. God is suggesting we choose life...

choose blessings.. 

choose happiness..

choose love...♥

Kabayan , Do you have an Abundance Mentality? You definitely must!

If you’re in the workplace and na depressed ka dahil tumaas yung sahod ng kasama mu at hindi ka masaya para sa kanya, you’ve probably got the scarcity mentality. On the other hand, if someone getting a raise gets you excited because that means there’s a possibility of you getting a raise, that’s the abundance mentality at work.

If you’re at home and find yourself envious of some gadget someone else has because you don’t have one, you’re probably falling into the scarcity mentality. If you’re happy for a friend because they have something they want and you’re also content with your own possessions, that’s probably the abundance mentality.

Or if you are in a marketing business and you find yourself jealous for the success of other to the point that you have that fear that your business might outperform or overshadow your potential profits, that’s scarcity mentality! On the other hand if you see people succeed no matter what their business is that’s the abundance mentality at work.

Scarcity mentality cares what other people have, while the Abundance mentality doesn’t.

It almost goes without saying, then, that having an abundance mentality is incredibly useful when it comes to personal finance.

So do you have lack of money? Don’t focus on your lack! Focus and think of the possibilities in the world to earn extra money ! Soon ideas and opportunities to make that happen will start to “pop up” in your world. It maybe in your Facebook or from the internet or from a colleague that have been there for quite  a while then just one day suddenly jump at you.

Whenever you find yourself falling into a “scarcity” trap, where you find yourself jealous of the things other people have, STOP!!!

Tanungin ang sarili: Paanong ang pagtatagumpay o ang pagkakamit ng maraming bagay ng kapwa mu ay nakakahadlang sa sarili mung pagtatagumpay?

Huwag tayong mahulog sa pag iisip na mauubusan tayo kapag may mga nagtatagumpay o umaangat na mga tao sa paligid natin.

Hindi mu kailangang talunin ang lahat para magtagumpay. Pagtagumpayan mu muna ang sarili mu. Ang pag asenso ng iba ay dapat ikasiya yamang nangangahulugan din ito ng posibilidad ng sariling pag asenso.

There really is enough for everyone. Ang Panginoong Diyos ang magkakaloob niyan buhat sa kanyang kayamanang hindi nauubos ... Amen!J

Usapang OFW :Kailan ka mag po "for good" kabayan?

Sabi ng isang OFW , kung hindi ako nag abroad marahil kapiling ko ngayon ang pamilya ko. Pero kung hindi ako nag aabroad malamang pare pareho kaming mamamatay sa gutom sa mahirap na buhay at hindi ko din kakayanin na sapitin pa yun ng mga anak ko..

Isa lamang ito sa mga dahilan bakit tayo nangibang bansa at katapusan na naman ang karamihan ay sabik na makuha ang sahod

Ngunit kadalasan ay dumadaan lang ito sa mga palad natin kabayan

Agad pagkatanggap ng sahod ay nagbubukod tayo una para sa Panginoon

Sa padala sa pinas, sa gastos sa kuryente, upa ng bahay atbp.

Karamihan sapat lang o minsan pa nga ay kulang ang ating budget para sa maraming gastusin

Minsan pa nga ay nagkakaroon ng mga emergency at di natin alam ang gagawin kung saan tayo kukuha ng panggastos

Sa gitna ng katotohanang ito lahat tayo ay nagnanais makatulong sa ating pamilya at alam natin walang magbabago kung mauulit lang ang eksenang sa sahod lang natin tayo aasa! 

Papayag ka pa ba na wala na namang mangyari sa sahod mu?

Gusto po ba ninyong magkaroon ng ibang pagkakakitaan kung saan yung kikitain mu dito sa negosyong ito ay maari mo ng ipambayad sa kuryente , sa upa , sa gayon mas malaki ang iyong maipadala o maipon?

Pag nagkasakit si nanay o si tatay ay may huhugutin kang bala na hindi kailangan mangutang

Madali lang po ang negosyong ito kailangan lang po may paghugutan tayo kung bakit kailangan nating gawin ito---Hindi lang para sa atin bagkus ay para din naman sa mga pangarap at mga taong umaasa sa atin.

Una sa lahat bakit ka ba nag aabroad? Hindi ba para sa kanila?

 Masakit sa isang magulang na hindi makita ang anak o di kaya sa FB na lang nakikita ang paglaki ng anak?

Mahirap sa anak lalo na sa mga "bread winner" ang kumayod para lamang may maipadala at makatulong sa mga kapatid sa pag aaral.

Kailan ka mag po " for good"  Kabayan?

Ang isa sa makakamtam po natin sa negosyong ito ay TIME. Yung tatrabahuhin po natin ng 3 o 5 taon ay maari nating gawin sa loob lamang ng 1 taon. 

At yung TIME na ma save po natin ay maari nating makapiling ang ating mahal sa buhay.Maari nga yung iba pa matanda na at may karamdaman pa ang magulang.

Bigyan po natin ng pagkakataon ang Royale na baguhin po ang ating  buhay at pamumuhay.

Para sa mga katanungan  ay mag email sa royaleuae@gmail.com

 o tumawag sa:050 686 0415 para po samahan sa isang FREE BUSINESS PRESENTATION 

Maraming Salamat po.

Stop being Poor! Leverage!

A man always prayed to Jesus so he could win the lotto. One day, Jesus appeared to him and said, “Ok, I’ll make you win the lotto but please, please… BUY A TICKET!” :p

Similarly most of us want to be rich. But the question is how badly we want it?

Do we do something about it?

We wonder why we are still poor after all the years spending in your job or abroad.

We may have born poor but if we die poor is our own responsibility. It is only the accumulation of our decisions from the past.

Kabayan , I urge you to pause and think for a while..will your job make you rich or financially well off?

Your Boss will get rich but not you. So don't be an employee forever. DREAM. Dare to change. Get out of our comfort zone.

Otherwise we cannot expect any improvement in our lives it will be a repetition of same days slowly aging you while we get poorer as the economy stumbles down.

Just like the man who keeps praying to be successful or financially free but does not have the action for his conviction.

If you want to get rich , look for the opportunities to EARN EXTRA INCOME around you.  You cannot rich just by wishing and praying. 

God will look for a channel to flow His blessings and that channel maybe in the form of stocks , bonds , or business.

It's all up to you but bottomline is God cannot help you if you do not exert any effort and considering TIME  we may have gotten old before we become a millionaire or maybe too late to see our kids or our parents have a good life.


We only have 24hrs each day so why not use the power of leveraging?


See the illustration above, imagine POVERTY is the stone..d ba mahirap po na buhatin mano mano yung bato? pero kung gagamit ka ng leverage kaya hindi po ba?


Basta legal , tapat , walang masasagasaan  at maayos po ang gagawing pag negosyo ay kayang kaya po nating iangat ang ating buhay sa kahirapan!

Grab your Dreams!

Archie Acedo - 050 686 0415

archz_acedo@yahoo.com

Investment Advocate

Associate Financial Planner

Royale Business Leader

BA 64225952

www.royalebusinessclub.com

Economic Recession Inevitable!

By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney February 24, 2012: 4:44 PM E

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- While most economists have stopped worrying that the U.S. will fall into a double-dip recession, one influential economist maintains his position that the nation won't be able to avoid a new downturn.

Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, said on Friday that his research firm is sticking with the forecast it made in September: A new recession is inevitable, despite improvement in high-profile economic indicators, such as job creation and unemployment, and a stock market rally.

ECRI is one of the more widely respected firms on economic recessions, as it has never been wrong when forecasting that a recession would start, or failed to predict a recession well before it was widely accepted.

Achuthan predicts the recession will happen even without a new shock to the economy, such as a spike in oil and gas prices or a Greek sovereign debt default sparking a financial meltdown. If those things occur, he says they will simply make an inevitable recession more painful.

In fact, Achuthan said data gathered since his September forecast only confirms his view that economic growth has slowed to such a degree that a downturn is now unavoidable, likely by late summer.

"Now that we have several months of definitive hard data, this is not a forecast," he said, pointing to key measures that don't receive as much attention from the public or many economists.

"Basically, growth has flatlined," he said.

Some might think that a new downturn would be a so-called double-dip recession, in that it comes before the economy has fully recovered from the jobs lost during the Great Recession. But Achuthan said if the economy falls into recession at this point, it would be a new recession, not a double dip, given the time that has passed since the formal end of the recession in 2009 and the economic growth since then.

He said improved consumer confidence and economists' stronger outlook are due to gains in jobs and stocks over the last six months.

The unemployment rate has fallen for five straight months, dropping to 8.3% in January compared to 9.1% in August. Filings for new jobless benefits have fallen to a nearly four-year low. And the Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index has gained 27% since an October low to reach thehighest level since June 2008.

"Job growth always follows consumer spending growth, not the other way around," Achuthan said.

That doesn't necessarily mean the economy will start losing jobs again by this summer, when he expects the recession to start. He said hiring can continue in the early months of a downturn, but there will definitely be job losses ahead.